NBC12 Weather Insider

Sunday Night-Monday Morning Snow Chances

Chances for snow, mainly Sunday night through Monday morning, will be greatest west and northwest of RVA, but the metro area could see a light slushy accumulation of wet snow by Monday morning as well. Look for mainly rain during the afternoon and early evening Sunday before colder air forces a changeover, mostly from around I-95 corridor and west. -Jim

Winter Continues Into Spring (Kevin Jeanes)

It was 71° at RIC yesterday, and we're talking about snow tomorrow morning.  It's unlikely we get any more than a dusting of wet, slushy snow on the roads in Richmond, but areas north and west of Richmond could get an inch or two. This, once again, will depend on how hard the rain/snow is coming down.  Either way, I'd be prepared for a slower than normal commute to work.

How can we still get snow on St. Patrick's Day you ask?  Well that's not all.

Looking way ahead in the computer models  - Tuesday March 26th - there are signs of a significant winter storm.  Keep in mind that anything more than 3 days out in the models is far from a guarantee. 10 days out - very unlikely this comes to fruition.

 

This is just a sign that Winter doesn't want to go away just yet.  We expect below average temperatures through the end of the month (image from Climate Prediction Center below). 

As for the potential snow storm... we'll just have to wait and see.  Don't get your hopes up for snow though, even though most "snow lovers" are even saying they're ready for Spring. Snow is difficult to come by in late March.  Just for fun - here's the top 10 snow events in March in Richmond from the National Weather Service Wakefield.

Comet PanSTARRS Visible In Coming Weeks

For those of you who are astronomy buffs or simply enjoying see interesting happenings in the sky, be sure to look for the Comet PanSTARRS in coming weeks.  This comet should be visible from March 12th-March 24th.  You'll want to look in the western sky about 40-45 minutes after sunset on a clear evening.  Try to find a place where you can get a good view of the horizon without trees or buildings to obscure your view.  Binoculars would come in very handy! If you're able to get a good view of the comet, snap a picture and send it to 12 at senditto12@nbc12.com.  If you have our First Warning Weather App, you can upload the photo directly from your smartphone.

Enjoy!

ROS RUNNER

 

Snow Totals Heaviest West

Preliminary tallies of snowfall across Central Virginia from this winter storm show the highest amounts of 4-7" mostly west of I-95.  Generally over the area from Richmond to the west and north, totals ranged from 1"-5", with isolated reports of higher amounts.

Just a dusting to 1" accumulated not far to the east and south, from southern Chesterfield to eastern Henrico. Other areas to the east, such as King William had as much as 3-4".

Most of the significant accumulations of snow occured with the heavy bursts of thundersnow this morning over the span of just a couple hours. The balance of the day brought plenty of snow, heavy at times, flying through the air, but most melted when hitting the ground with air temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

-Jim

Snow minimal over most of RVA, much heavier west and north

This is our updated snowfall forecast. We are still expecting mainly rain over much of RVA, with some snow towards Wednesday evening, but little accumulation, except over the western suburbs, where a slushy 1-3" of snow could accumulate.

Heavy snow will be just a short distance to the west and north, however, with several inches of a wet snow possible from western Goochland, Louisa, Spotsylvania, and even heavier amounts farther west and north, towards Charlottesville and DC.

-Jim

Snow Chance Fading...

Good morning,

*updated at 8:50am 3/5/2013 from Andrew Freiden and Kevin Jeanes*

As we get closer to tomorrow's coastal storm getting started, the chance of significant snow in Metro Richmond diminishes... a slight jog north in the expected storm track means our temperatures will be even warmer than we thought yesterday.  

Yesterday, we thought Wednesday's temperatures would drop into the mid 30s-- borderline for snow.

Now it looks like we may hit the low 40s tomorrow before the temperature starts to drop.  It's now looking like mainly rain with only minimal snow.  Some snow could fall during the evening or even early Thursday morning, but accumulations will be minimal.

Here's the map:

 

Timing in Richmond?

Wednesday Morning:  Rain (lower 40s or upper 30s)

Wednesday Midday: Rain (upper 30s)

Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: Rain or Rain/Snow Mix (mid 30s)

The changeover to snow is expected sooner North and West of Richmond. And we still think 5" is possible in the Northern and Western Side of Louisa/Fluvanna/Goochland Counties.

The big snow totals still look to be in the Shenandoah Valley, from Augusta County to Winchester.  There, 1' of snow is expected.  It'll be heavy wet snow.  Add high winds in the mix and we'll likely see power outages in the NW portion of Virginia.

School Closings?

Plenty of questions about school closings.  Closings may come in for our NW Counties, in particular those that see snow before daybreak tomorrow.  There's a slight chance of some closings/delays on Thursday morning, in response to some snow showers that may be flying Wednesday Night or early Thursday.

Roads?

Could be a mess NORTH AND WEST toward Charlottesville and Fredericksburg while they will just be wet and maybe slushy in Richmond Metro.

Extra bonus Weather Insider Info:

This image is a part of a forecast model sounding.  It's a way for us to look at the vertical structure of the atmosphere at a point (in this case, at RIC).  A few things to notice:

1: this is a forecast of the conditions at 11pm Wednesday (red oval)

2: the blue dot on the left of the image means the forecast is for snow

3: the red line shows temperature.  at 2500 feet off the ground, the air is below freezing but at the surface, it's 36.5°F.  At that temperature you'd like to have a combination of frozen ground and heavy snow to get accumulation.  Neither one of those is forecast to be present. 

The model indicates about 1" of rain tonight through Wednesday afternoon but by the time it changes to snow there's not much left.  Still could be some snow in Richmond Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but not a lot.

*We'll keep you posted here, on our facebook pages, and of course on TV*

Snow Totals Vary Greatly Wednesday

Snowfall Wednesday will vary tremendously across the state, with very heavy amounts expected over the far northwest corner of Virginia, while central and eastern Virginia should see comparatively much less.

Still, several inches of a slushy, wet snow will be possible around metro Richmond, falling mainly from afternoon through early evening after it changes over from rain. With much of the falling snow melting, especially in lighter snow bands, accumulations could be difficult to build at first. Heavier bands, where they develop (most likely northern half of state) will have greatest ability to accumulate.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect west and north of Richmond, and we'll see if those are expanded to include more areas as the details of this system become more apparent. Right now we think the metro area could see as much as 4" over the western suburbs, with lower amounts elsewhere.

-Jim

Wednesday Storm Update

It's a crazy map, isn't it?  

This computer model shows 1" in Eastern Henrico/Tri-Cities and 4" in Western Henrico through Thursday morning.  I think those numbers are actually a little low based on our legend at the top but I wrote some numbers on the map that are closer to what we're thinking.  Expect MUCH more north and west versus South and East.  That orange color is a 1' snowfall in the NW corner of Virginia.

The total map will likely shift around a bit before the storm starts but this storm has been on the forecast maps consistently since early next week. 

Confidence is high the storm happens. 

But confidence is low on snow totals.  The Big question is "how cold it will be?"  and "will the snow pile up or melt as it's falling?  This forecast has a big possiblity of a miss in Richmond if the changeover to snow happens either later in the day or of the precipitation is much lighter.  Still much to nail down on this as we get closer to Wednesday.

Timing in Richmond?

Wednesday Morning:  Rain (upper 30s)

Wednesday Midday: Rain Changing to Snow (mid 30s)

Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: Heavy, Wet Snow (low 30s)

The changeover to snow is expected sooner North and West of Richmond.

Power Outages?

*This kind of heavy, wet snow that falls AFTER it rains can sometimes cause lots of power outages as snow sticks to wet trees and power lines.  We also expect strong winds during the day Wednesday that could make that effect worse.*

School Closings?

Plenty of questions about school closings on Wednesday.  I bet we'll get a bunch of closings before it starts in anticipation of snowfall for the commute home from school Wednesday.  School systems don't like to send students home as the weather deteriorates.

Roads?

Could be a mess Wednesday/Wednesday night since Salt won't be effective.  Rain to Snow storms render salt moot as rain will just wash it away.

-Andrew Freiden:  8:42am Monday

Mid-Week Winter Storm on Track, Snow Totals Still Uncertain

Here is a view of the European Model forecast for 7pm on Wednesday, March 7th. It is essentially showing snow falling over the entire state of Virginia.  The European Model has really been quite consistent in it's handling of this storm in recent days.  In fact, all of the various computer models have consistently showed a major storm impacting Virginia starting Tuesday lasting into Wednesday night.  It's also fairly clear that we will start off as rain over most of central Virginia on Tuesday and then change over to snow during the day Wednesday. 

It will likely be raining when you wake up early Wednesday morning here in metro Richmond.  Areas to the west may already being seeing the wet snow.  The rain changes to a heavy, wet, slushy snow here in Richmond later in the morning and that rain/snow line should slowly progress south and east from mid-day into the afternoon.

The big question that remains, how much snow will we see when all is said and done?  One problem, temperatures will be above the freezing mark much of the day Wednesday, even with snow coming down.  With it being the first week of March, the sun is higher in the sky and although we won't see the sun, some of the sun's energy will still be able to get through the clouds and provide some warming to the ground.  What we will need is very heavy snowfall rates to overcome some of these other negative factors.  This particular storm system will have that potential to produce some very impressive snowfall rates.  However, it won't necessarily produce these optimal snowfall rates uniformly over our entire area so snowfall totals could vary considerably.

Right now, we think 4"+ is still a possiblility in metro Richmond with heavier amounts in areas well west and northwest of the city.  Areas south and east of Richmond will see less snow and perhaps significantly less should snowfall rates be less than optimal in these areas.  We will be looking at all the available data tonight and tomorrow morning and should be able to put out a first guess map sometime on Monday. As we all know, these types of storms can and do change.  Just a subtle change in the track can make a big difference. Stay tuned for regular updates! 

Have a great night!

ROS RUNNER

 

 

 

 

Storm Update (Video)

The process of posting this video is a little complex, and of course I found a HUGE error after posting - the graphic I used is zoomed in.  So I've posted snapshots of the graphic below that shows everything in the video. I'm sorry for the inconvenience and thanks for your patience! -Kevin