After tonight's rain and a day of record warmth expected tomorrow, we are still looking at another signficant storm system to affect the area on Thanksgiving Eve.
Low pressure developing off the ...southeast coast of the U.S. Tuesday night will make its way up the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday and then away from the area in time for the holiday itself. As the moisture is moving north, colder air will be trying to work into the area from the west.
Computer model forecast data has shifted slightly to the west over the last 24 hours suggesting the track of the low pressure system will be a bit closer to the coast. This is important in that with a track closer to the coast, warmer air will penetrate farther inland providing most of us in Central Virginia with a good soaking rain versus a big snowstorm.
That said, this system will really be cranking up as it tracks east just off the Virginia coast on Wednesday afternoon. The upper air dynamics associated with the storm should be enough to bring some colder air down to the surface and allow for a change to wet snow before ending. The farther west and northwest you go out of the metro Richmond area, the better chance you might even see some slushy accumulations of snow. As you get closer to the I-81 corridor of far western Virginia, that is where mostly snow should fall and accumulations have the potential to be much more significant (4"+). Keep this in mind if you have plans to travel on Wednesday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Even in the areas that get mostly rain, it won't be a fun travel day since the rain will be falling heavily at times.
This is a very complex storm system and is still about 2 1/2 -3 days away. We'll continue to monitor it's development and keep you updated on any changes. Keep in mind, a change in the track of the storm 50-100 miles either way could make a big difference. Stay abreast of any forecast changes should you be traveling....this storm system will have far reaching effects up and down the entire East Coast. Areas well inland get the snow, areas closer to the coast get quite a bit of rain. Hope you have a great evening!